In football betting, expected goals or xG is an advanced statistic that quantifies scoring chances. But how is xG calculated and used by punters to beat the bookies? Let’s find out.
What is xG? Put simply, xG measures shot quality in a football match. Every shot or chance has an xG value between 0 and 1 representing its likelihood of being scored. So an open goal tap-in may have a 0.95 xG while a 30-yard volley could be 0.05 xG. Individual xGs are summed giving overall xG for each team and match.
Using xG for Betting
Sharp bettors leverage xG stats identifying teams whose actual goals diverge from expected goals. If a side is creating better chances than opponents (higher xG) but losing due to poor finishing or luck, their fortunes may flip soon.
Similarly, teams scoring way above their low xG tend to regress in future games once lady luck abandons them. Identifying these trends aids in predicting results.
Example In a recent EPL match, Brighton registered 2.35 xG with 7 shots on target but lost 1-0 to Liverpool and their 1.56 xG. Brighton created better chances but lacked finishing. Based on the underlying xG metrics indicating their attacking threat, Brighton could be backed to win their next fixture.
Thoughts While complex, expected goals help assess the true strength of football teams. Combining xG figures, current form and motivation can uncover betting value the basic match odds don’t display. The extra work pays off!